Global Market Snapshot 3rd March 2025

Market Overview
Last week, U.S. consumer confidence took a sharp dive, with consumer spending showing signs of weakness. At the same time, jobless claims increased, indicating potential challenges ahead for the U.S. labor market.

On the global stage, trade war fears escalated further. President Trump ramped up his aggressive tariff policies, announcing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico set to take effect by March 4, while also hinting at similar measures against the European Union.

Geopolitical tensions also rose, particularly after a tense meeting at the White House between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The meeting, originally intended to pave the way for a U.S.-Ukraine mineral supply deal to counter Russian aggression, ultimately ended without progress.

On a positive note, expectations for a mid-year Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, adding a slight boost to market sentiment. In this environment of heightened uncertainty, the U.S. dollar is expected to be the key beneficiary this week, as risk aversion fuels demand for safe-haven assets.

Weekly Trend Forecast

EUR/USD
The euro experienced modest gains last week before retreating. This week, the pair is expected to trend downward overall. Support sits at 1.0175 —a break below this level could extend the downtrend that began from 1.1213, reinforcing a more pronounced bearish outlook. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.0533. If the euro breaks above this level, the trend could shift into a more bullish direction. However, as long as 1.0533 holds, the outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair saw a rebound last week, reaching a temporary high at 150.98 before pulling back. This week’s outlook is neutral. Key support lies at 148.50—a break below this level would turn the trend bearish. On the upside, resistance sits at 154.79. A break above this level would suggest the market has found a short-term bottom, opening the door for a stronger rebound.

GBP/USD
After reaching new highs last week, GBP/USD reversed lower, suggesting a possible short-term top has formed. This week’s outlook leans bearish, with support at 1.2243. A break below this level would confirm the uptrend from 1.2098 has ended, transitioning into a deeper downtrend. On the upside, resistance sits at 1.2716—a break above would shift the outlook back to bullish.

USD/CHF
USD/CHF experienced a V-shaped recovery last week. The outlook for this week is neutral, with support at 0.8910. As long as the price holds above this level, the pair retains upside potential, potentially retesting resistance at 0.9200. However, if the price falls below 0.8910, the trend would shift bearish, targeting the next key support at 0.8731.

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar continued to weaken last week, breaking through key support levels. The outlook for this week remains bearish, with support at 0.6087. A break below this level would likely extend the downtrend that began from 0.6940. On the upside, resistance stands at 0.6408—a break above this level would indicate a potential reversal into a bullish trend.

USD/CAD
USD/CAD extended its rebound from the 1.4150 level last week. For this week, the outlook remains bullish, with resistance at 1.4793. A clear break above this level would confirm further upside potential. On the downside, support sits at 1.4257—a break below would shift the outlook to neutral. Further declines below the key support at 1.4150 would indicate a shift to a bearish trend.

Stay tuned for further updates as global economic data, geopolitical developments, and central bank actions continue to shape the financial markets.