Global Market Snapshot 17th February 2025

Over the past weekend, relief swept through the markets as investors reacted to the absence of immediate trade restrictions under President Trump’s anticipated reciprocal tariff plan. This sentiment led to a broad overnight rally on Wall Street, accompanied by accelerated sell-offs in the US dollar as investors responded to the White House’s evolving trade policy stance. Although the US stock market maintained an optimistic outlook, the bullish sentiment has not fully transmitted to Asian markets. While Hong Kong’s stock market continued its strong rally, other major indices showed ambiguous signals, reflecting persistent investor caution. Concerns remain over the tariff situation, particularly as Trump’s trade team begins reviewing countries with significant US trade surpluses—a process that could extend over several weeks and drive further global volatility.

Weekly Trend Forecast:

• EUR/USD: The pair continues to consolidate since last week, with a neutral overall trend. Currently, resistance is at 1.0627; if this level holds, the market may remain bearish. Conversely, support lies at 1.0174; a breach here might trigger a renewed downtrend observed since 1.1213. However, a move above 1.0527 could signal a rebound, targeting 1.0937.

• USD/JPY: After a pullback from 158.87 last week, the pair’s momentum has gradually weakened, resulting in a neutral outlook for this week. Resistance is positioned at 154.78—if broken, it could trigger short-term bullish momentum and a retest of the high near 158.87. On the other hand, falling below the support of 150.91 may indicate the end of the upward rally that began at 139.57.

• GBP/USD: After touching a high of 1.2630 last week and quickly losing steam, the pound remains in a neutral stance with resistance at 1.2816. While a corrective rebound has been observed since 1.2099, the upward potential is capped by 1.2816. Support is at 1.2097; a break below could lead to a retest of the 1.2000 level, whereas an upward break might reverse the trend toward a target of 1.3046.

• USD/CHF: Despite notable volatility last week, the Swiss franc traded below a resistance level of 0.9199. This week, the trend appears neutral with room for gains—if the price breaks above 0.9199, the previous upward trend starting from 0.8374 may resume. Conversely, falling below 0.8372 could complete a double-top reversal, pushing the market further downward.

• AUD/USD: The pair rebounded strongly from a low of 0.6086 last week, but with resistance holding at 0.6685, the overall outlook remains neutral. A break below the 0.6086 support may heighten downside risks, while a successful break above 0.6685 could trigger a robust rebound toward 0.6944.

• USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar surged to 1.4794 last week before experiencing a significant pullback. The current trend indicates a downward bias, with support at 1.3926 and resistance at 1.4794. A breach of the support level may signal deeper adjustments, while overcoming resistance could reignite the upward trend with a strong rebound.

Stay tuned for more detailed insights and analyses as we continue to monitor these evolving market dynamics.