Global Market Snapshot 11th March 2025

Market Overview

Last week’s U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report did not have the significant impact that many had anticipated. The report indicated that job growth aligned with market expectations, reflecting a stable labor market. However, this balanced data provided little guidance for Federal Reserve policymakers, who still need to assess inflation trends, fiscal policy uncertainties, and global trade risks before making any policy adjustments.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy persists. Tariffs continue to be seen as a factor dampening market sentiment and economic growth rather than a primary driver of inflation. The recent exemptions granted to Canada and Mexico have further reinforced concerns over inconsistencies in U.S. trade strategy. This ongoing policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on investor sentiment. If this trend continues, it could lead to capital outflows and put additional pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Weekly Trend Forecasts

EUR/USD

EUR/USD rebounded from last week’s low of 1.0388, demonstrating strong upward momentum. The initial trend for this week suggests a bullish outlook.

• Upside: If the pair stabilizes above 1.0887, it could test the key resistance at 1.1274 in the coming sessions.
• Downside: If the price falls below the minor support at 1.0763, the market may turn neutral and enter a consolidation phase. A further drop below 1.0533 would confirm a shift to a bearish trend.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY retreated from last week’s high of 151.30, entering a downward correction. This week, the bias remains bearish.

• Downside: If the pair continues to trade below 146.90, it may extend its decline toward the key support level at 139.57.
• Upside: Resistance is seen at 151.30, last week’s high. A breakout above this level would shift the market into a neutral stance, leading to a potential consolidation phase.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD rebounded from 1.2544 last week, signaling that the prior period of consolidation may have ended. This week, the market appears bullish.

• Upside: Resistance stands at 1.3051—a break above this level could pave the way for a retest of the 1.3433 high.
• Downside: If the price falls below 1.2543, the outlook may turn neutral, leading to a period of consolidation.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF extended its downtrend last week, suggesting that a prior consolidation phase has ended. The trend remains bearish this week.

• Downside: Key support lies at 0.8612—a sustained break below this level could push the pair further down toward 0.8374.
• Upside: If the pair manages to break above 0.9036, market sentiment could shift to neutral, leading to a consolidation phase.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD experienced a strong rebound last week before pulling back. This week, the outlook remains neutral.

• Downside: Support is found at 0.6184—a break below this level could lead to a further decline toward the 0.6087 key support level. If this level is breached, a broader downtrend may develop.
• Upside: Resistance is located at 0.6408—a break above this level, followed by sustained trading above it, would signal a shift toward a bullish trend.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD climbed to 1.4542 last week before entering a consolidation phase. The initial market sentiment for this week is neutral.

• Downside: Support is located at 1.4148—a break below this level could lead to a further drop toward 1.3945.
• Upside: Resistance stands at 1.4542—a breakout above this level could trigger a stronger uptrend, potentially retesting 1.4791.