Stocks and Metals Rebound, USD Bulls Pause for Breath | - International

  • Equity markets were broadly higher overnight, helping offset some of the losses seen over the three prior weeks. Energy and financial stocks led the rally and both US and European equities closed their session higher.
  • Gold and Silver moved further from their lows after suffering their most bearish week since March.
  • And the US dollar was broadly lower against its major peers, with commodity AUD/USD leading the pack upon improved risk appetite and GBP/USD gaining traction on hope of positive Brexit talks later today.
  • BOE’s Ramsden says the bank expects unemployment picking up “really sharply this year”, and they are ready to act (with monetary policy) if necessary.


  • No major economic data is scheduled for today
  • Brexit talks in Brussels are set to resume. Approach GBP pairs and FTSE with caution


Nasdaq 100 (USTEC): Bullish Intraday Structure

  • Prices broke above last week’s high, in line with our bullish bias outlined yesterday.
  • The monthly pivot and previous swing higher may provide a potential support zone around 11,241, making it a candidate for bulls to enter long on retracements.
  • Bulls can target the highs around 11,580 (also near the weekly S2 pivot) or use the bullish channel as a dynamic target.
  • Bias remains bullish above 11,241.


EUR/JPY: Bullish Pressure Forms at the Lows

  • We continued to monitor the tight consolidation at the lows, but yesterday’s bullish engulfing candle suggests bulls want to take this higher.
  • There have been 5 failed attempts to break lower (lower wicks), and the bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low is place.
  • Bulls can consider long positions with a break above 123.20 with an open target. A break beneath yesterday’s low invalidates the near-term bullish bias.


Silver (XAG/USD): Preparing for a Counter-Trend Rally?

  • The sell-off in precious metals was hard and fast. Although it is now trying to pick itself up from its lows.
  • A bullish hammer on Thursday and break above its high yesterday suggests the swing low is in place.
  • Bulls can consider setups above or around the 22.78 – 23.38 zone. A break below 22.75 (last week’s close low) invalidates the near-term bullish bias.


Watchlist Update:

EUR/USD: Bias remains bearish below 1.1700, although we need the current correction from last week’s low to play out.

EUR/AUD: Prices continue to coil up beneath 1.6600 resistance. We need momentum to suggest which way the next major move will be (will it break above resistance or roll over beneath it?)

S&P/ASX 200 (AUS200): Range trading strategies preferred whilst trading within the 5800 – 6200 area.

Hang Seng (HK50): Bias remains bearish below 24,156. We’ve seen a minor pullback from the lows and will continue to monitor for a new bearish pattern beneath resistance.

AUD/USD: Mean reversion is underway above key support. Counter-trend bulls could try to target the 0.7130 area (prior support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Or bears can wait for evidence that a swing high has formed.

GBP/USD: Friday presented a decent opportunity to fade into the top of the range. However, yesterday’s bullish momentum finally saw it break higher from its consolidation. We’re removing it from the watchlist ahead of today’s Brexit talks.

USD/CHF: Prices need to correct lower before we reconsider long opportunities.

GBP/CAD: Removed from watchlist. Bullish momentum clearly broke above the 1.7100/50 resistance zone.

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