Fed Not Ready to Taper QE, Traders Square Up Ahead of Thanksgiving | FXTRADING.com - International

  • The Fed ruled out an immediate adjustment to the pace of QE but stated a change of circumstances could warrant it if necessary, according to November’s FOMC minutes.
  • US indices were reluctant to continue their bullish stampede ahead of US Thanksgiving, with softer economic data suggesting the latest surge in COVID-19 infections is beginning to hamper the economic recovery.
  • US GDP was revised slightly lower to 33.1% (33.2% prior), consumer confidence fell to 96.1 (98.0 prior) and 778k new people filed for jobless claims.
  • The Dow Jones (US30) was back below its headline grabbing 30k milestone as traders squared up ahead of US Thanksgiving and the USD continued to weaken with the dollar index closing to its lowest level since April 2018.
  • NZD was the strongest major after RBNZ Governor Orr poured cold water on negative interest rates for now.

 

Today’s Calendar Events (Times are GMT+11 Sydney)

  • No major economic data is scheduled for today.
  • We could find trading ranges below average due to US Thanksgiving tonight as trading volumes are expected to be lower than usual. However, this also means that in the event something were to surprise markets that volatility can aggressively return – as long as there is a catalyst.
  • Due to restricted trading hours on some US exchanges today and tomorrow we will focus on FX markets which will remain open.

 

USD/CHF: Bearish Outside Day Above Support

  • USD/CHF remains stuck between the 0.9000 and 0.9200 area, unable to carve out a trend on the daily chart
  • Momentum is turning lower and a bearish outside day has closed just above 0.9076 support.
  • Intraday traders could use 0.9076 support as their bias; a break beneath here shifts to a bearish bias whilst a minor rebound from this level could provide near-term bullish bias.
  • Stay nimble due to the potential for lower volatility. But we suspect a break beneath 0.9076 could provide the more interesting move.

 

GBP/USD: A choppy Ride Towards the September Highs

  • Whether you like the price action or not, GBP/USD is trending higher with a series of higher lows.
  • The 1.3300 handle is clearly a pivotal area as it as acted as both support and resistance (and most recently as support).
  • A break above 1.3397 brings the September high into focus for bulls.

 

NZD/USD Find Support Above December 2018 High

  • NZD/USD has successfully turned prior resistance into support and trades within a bullish channel.
  • Prices have also just broken out of compression and trade near their highs.
  • Bulls could seek minor retracements to consider entering long.
  • Our bias remains bullish within the channel and the upper trendline can be used as a dynamic target.

 

Watchlist Update:

WTI (WTI): The bias on D1 remains bullish above the 43.85 breakout level. Intraday traders could use the 45.06 low to fine-tune risk management.

Nasdaq 100 (USTEC): The bias remains bullish above the 12,000 support zone.

USD/NOK: Bears pushed SD/NOK to a 2-month low and now around half-way towards the 0.8650 target.

DJIA (US30): Initial target around the 30,000 highs has been achieved. We’d prefer to step aside until after Thanksgiving.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): The bias remains bullish within the bullish channel although price action is choppy around 19k.  

USD/SEK: Broke key support and traders at its lowest level since April 2018 with 8.5527 support making the next likely target for bears.

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