- Most of the action overnight was seen in the crypto space, with Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) falling over 10% and Ripple (XRPUSD) falling over 16% in low-liquidity trade.
- Elsewhere, volatility was mostly contained with several US markets either closed or trading a limited sessions due to Thanksgiving. With some markets remaining closed until Monday we could be in for another quiet session without a fresh catalyst.
- AstraZenca’s claim that their vaccine has a 90% success rate has been brought into question by some experts after going through the data, with some doubting the robustness of the results. Fears that the vaccine rollout could be delayed saw the S&P 500 futures retreat from highs and oil prices retrace as traders anticipated lower fuel demand due to prolonged lockdowns.
Today’s Calendar Events (Times are GMT+11 Sydney)
- No major economic data is scheduled for today.
NZD/USD Firms After RBNZ Comments
- The New Zealand dollar remains the strongest major against the USD this week after comments from RBNZ suggested negative rates are less likely.
- NZD/USD remains in a strong uptrend and trades within a wider bullish channel.
- A retracement has respected the 38.2% Fibonacci levels to suggest a swing low is in place.
- A break above 0.7015 assumes bullish continuation and the bias remains bullish above the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
GBP/USD: Bullish Trendline Remains Intact
- Prices have retreated below 1.3340 resistance yet remain above the bullish trendline.
- A bullish 2-bar reversal has formed on the trendline H1 chart. A break above their highs assumes a run towards the 1.3340 high.
- The bias remains bullish above the 1.3300 handle and a break above 1.3397 / 1.3400 assumes bullish continuation.
GBP/CHF: One for Bears To Keep Tabs On
- Not for the first time, GBP/CHF has struggled to break and hold above 1.2200. In fact we have seen three large sell-offs from these highs since April, so this is clearly an important level for traders.
- Yesterday saw a large bearish bar after a Rikshaw man doji to suggest a top is in place.
- Bears could look to fade into minor rallies within yesterday’s bar, or enter short a break of yesterday’s low (the latter may diminish the reward to risk ratio though).
- The bias remains bearish beneath this week’s highs.
USD/CHF: We’ve seen a minor break below support for a few potential pips. A swing high on H1 has formed at 0.9093 – a break beneath here removes it form the watchlist.
USD/NOK: The bias remains bearish beneath the 0.8965 breakout level. Whilst a bullish 2-bar reversal has formed on D1 it may allow prices to retrace and present a new opportunity to short beneath this key level.
USD/SEK: Broke key support and traders at its lowest level since April 2018 with 8.5527 support making the next likely target for bears.