- Cryptocurrencies were broadly higher overnight, with Bitcoin (BTC) breaking above 17,000, Ethereum (ETHUSD) testing the August high and XRP (XRPUSD) broke above 0.3000.
- BOE (Bank of England) Governor Ramsdem estimates markets are pricing in only a 20% probability of a no-deal Brexit. If so, it leaves GBP vulnerable to heavy losses if a deal is not struck.
- In spite of Trump’s refusal to concede, Joe Biden continued to push ahead and form his cabinet and named several of his campaign advisors as White House aides.
- The US Senate blocked Trump’s nominee, Judy Shelton, from joining the Fed board. Shelton’s view on monetary policy has mirrored Trump’s views, has criticised the Fed’s need to set policy independently from the Fed and also served on Trump’s presidential campaign in 2016.
Today’s Calendar Events (Times are GMT+11 Sydney)
- Japan’s trade data is a proxy for global supply and demand, so risk assets such as AUD, NZD and indices should be in focus for news traders. Stronger exports are generally good for risk-on.
- GBP pairs and FTSE should be in focus at 18:00 with a host of inflationary indicators released for the UK.
- In the early house, Canada release CPI data which puts CAD pairs and the TSX 50 (CANADA60) index into focus.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): All Eyes on 20k
- In true bitcoin style, its bullish trend has adopted an exponential rise which gains on rising momentum and cuts through resistance levels like butter. Of course, at some point it will begin a nasty deep correction, but until then FOMO (fear of missing out) remains a key driver behind its rise.
- Bulls are eyeing up 20k as this is just above its record high.
- The bias remains bullish above the 17k support zone. The bullish channel may provide dynamic resistance, although round numbers such as 18k and 19k should also be considered.
NZD/CHF: Bulls Eye Potential Breakout
- Bullish momentum and risk-on sentiment has seen NZD/CHF rise towards the Fed high, and momentum suggests a bullish breakout is pending.
- Yesterday’s bullish engulfing candle suggests a minor correction form the highs is nearing completion.
- The bias remains bullish above 0.6230, whilst a break above 0.6330 confirms the breakout and brings the 0.6430 and 0.6550 highs into focus.
Copper (XCUUSD): One of Bulls and Bears to Watch
- As prices broke beneath the 32.8% Fibonacci level, the original analysis must now be revised.
- Whilst prices remain within the bearish channel, bears could target the 50% retracement level around 316 as part of a swing trade.
- Given copper remains within an uptrend, we expect prices to eventually break higher. So if prices break above the bearish channel, bulls could wait for prices to cross above 321.85 resistance to suggest the bullish trend has resumed.
USD/SEK: The bias remains bearish below 8.7100. A break below 8.5527 suggest a major bearish breakout.
USD/JPY: Stopped just shy of our 104 target, so removed from watchlist.
USD/CNH: Prices have reached the initial target around the 6.548 low. Next major support is around 6.465.
NZD/USD: Prices have early reached or initial 0.6930 target and have retraced on the H4 chart. Intraday targets could remain bullish above the hammer low at 0.6874 and target 0.6930.
EUR/JPY: On the backburner. Prices spiked above 124.30 but then promptly tested the 123.65 low.