Bitcoin Blasts Its Way Through Milestones with Ease
…when you see volatility this strong, trying to pick tops can become a fool’s errand.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to blow past milestone after milestone with the cryptocurrency blasting through 30,000 last week, and stopping just shy of 35,000 earlier today. The month of December saw Bitcoin rally over 46%, and trade over 20% higher in the last seven days alone. With Wall Street being on Holidays it’s hard to see how this is institutional money driving prices is higher. But the shear strength of momentum behind the move could suggests this is a classic FOMO move (fear of missing out).
From a technical standpoint, the daily and the four-hour charts remain within a very strong uptrend, although the daily chart does appear overstretched from its twenty-day average. But when you see volatility this strong, trying to pick tops can become a fool’s errand. But if previous tops are anything to go by, price action is unlikely to plateau at such high prices and instead we could see some wild whipsaws at the highs before any correction takes place. Until then, bulls will likely continue to be tempted to buy dips on lower timeframes, so long as volatility remains in favour of the bull-camp.
US Indices End 2020 On A High
Now trading just beneath last week’s new record high, Thursday’s bullish engulfing candle suggests bulls remain in control.
It was a positive end to the year for US equities with major indices closing at or near record highs. The Nasdaq 100 (USTEC) is holding above key support at 12,782 (it’s prior record high) so this key level will remain pivotal going forward. Now trading just beneath last week’s new record high, Thursday’s bullish engulfing candle suggest bulls remain in control.
It was a different story for Australian equities. The last trading week of the year for the ASX 200 (AUS200) saw it fail to fold above 6,700 and went on to produce a bearish engulfing week. Given the series of doji’s and bearish reversal candles in December, a break below 6,500 assumes a deeper correction is underway. And with COVID-19 cases continuing to rise in parts of New South Wales and Victoria, the index could face further headwinds this week.
OPEC issue price warnings for Oil in the first half of 2021
Citing weaker fundamentals and downside risks for the global economy, it raises the potential for OPEC to announce production cuts from February.
OPEC‘s Secretary General issued a warning for oil prices in the first half of 2021 over the weekend. Citing weaker fundamentals and downside risks for the global economy, it raises the potential for OPEC to announce production cuts from February, at tomorrow’s OPEC meeting.
WTI crude (WTI) currently trades around $48.52, with the 20-day average supporting the bullish trend on the daily chart. However, resistance has been found at the 200-week moving average around $50, which may prove a difficult technical level to overcome with OPEC’s negative outlook for oil, unless they produce a drastic production cut at their meeting.
Gold (XAU/USD) prices closed higher in month of December and broke a 4-month bearish streak. Having produced a bullish engulfing candle on the monthly chart with the weekly chart bouncing higher from the 50-week moving average, it suggests a potential corrective low from its all-time highs has been achieved. Currently trading around $1908, technical traders would like to see it hold above the $1850 swing low and break above the $1,912 high to assume bullish continuation. The next major resistance level is around $1,968.
Georgia in Focus for US Politics This Week
…a Republican win in Georgia may be seen as a negative for Wall Street, just as indices sit around record highs.
In US politics, all eyes on the Georgia polls tomorrow which could decide whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate. Republicans need just one of their two senators (David Perdue or Kelly Loeffler) to win which will allow the Republican Party to retain their narrow majority in the Senate, which will no doubt cause major headaches for the Biden administration to get key policies over the line when in office. Therefore, a Republican win in Georgia may be seen as a negative for Wall Street, just as indices sit around record highs.
Separately, a recording of president Trump trying to pressure Georgia’s Secretary of State into overturning the State’s election result was released by US media overnight. In the hour-long phone call, Trump tried to flatter and threaten Brad Raffsenberger, before going on to ask for him to “find 11,780 votes”. The move is seen as quite likely to be illegal by many pundits, although the Biden administration is not expected to go after Trump for this due to lack of political willpower. This news arrives just after several Republican senators announced they plan to reject the election results in Georgia on the 6th of January.